UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs Vincente Luque 2, odds, picks, predictions. (4/16/2022)

Belal Muhammad (+150) and Vincente Luque (-175) will take the cage standing across from each other for the second time in their careers. In 2019, Vincente Luque finished Muhammad in the 1st round via strikes and this time around the fight to go the distance is a light under dog (+125) versus a stoppage (-175).

I'm more focused on a prelim fight with Trey Ogden taking on Jordan Leavitt in a lightweight battle. First, Trey Ogden debuts in the UFC coming off a FURY FC title win in front of the UFC boss on Dana White's looking for a fight. He's taking on a fan favorite in Jordan Leavitt whose had a mixed amount of sucsess in his three UFC bouts. He burst on to fans screens with a slam TKO of Matt Winman, then split results losing to Claudio Puelles and picking up a win against Matt Sayles. I think this fight has some value on either side, with Ogden by decision pulling in at (+240) slightly better than the submission odds at (+187). I think Leavitts submission skills will keep him safe from a stoppage loss in this fight however, the Claudio fight displayed a clear method of victory for Ogden to land a takedown and dominiate on way to decision. If you're looking for value on the Leavitt side I don't think the (+125) is worth it straight up. But, catching Ogden on a submission - 3/4 Ogdens losses coming by submission - I think (+250) is worth it. Ogden ends up being risky on entries and has been caught in submissions before.

- My Play: Trey Ogden via Decision (+240)

- Value Play: Jordan Leavitt via Submission (+250)